Lack of supply of offers in the real estate sector. Experts warn - there may be a problem with meeting the strong demand.
Judit Mortoriol, chief economist at CaixaBank Research's Department of the Spanish Economy, warned that there was a "clear shortage of new construction". In 2022, around 110,000 were issued in Spain. new building permits, while about 210,000 new jobs were created. new families - according to the data of the Ministry of Transport, Mobility and the Urban Agenda (Mitma) and the National Statistical Institute (INE). This means that there are half as many new flats as new households.
"This is not something that happened on a one-off basis last year, but rather we have a clear shortage of housing in 2020, 2021 and 2022," the chief economist of CaixaBank Research underlined. Mortoriol explained that "we're building much better" than in 2006 and 2007 because we're building "where there's really a demand," but it still can't cover those needs.
She also recommended looking at INE's projections for the next five years, with an estimate of 200,000. new households per year as "a benchmark to see what might be a natural positioning to match that demand."
The event was also attended by the president of the Association of Real Estate Developers of Madrid (Asprima), Carolina Roca, who recalled that in 2022 there was a record number of transactions in the real estate market, with more than 650,000 transactions, and predicts a "very healthy" decline for this year.
Like other experts, Roca highlighted the "imbalance between supply and demand" that is accentuated in the production of new construction. Roca pointed out that the increase in transactions was mainly in second-hand homes, with a "very bad figure" of a market share in new construction of only 13%.
"We need to get back on track. We need to address this situation and find a solution to the imbalance between supply and demand, as well as renew our housing stock" - added the president of Asprima.
The president of the Spanish Mortgage Association, Santos González, for his part, predicts a correction, albeit a moderate one, as he rules out that an increase in interest rates will affect purchasing decisions. González also does not anticipate a drastic drop in prices in the face of "constant demand and scarce primary market supply".
"There is no two-way relationship between interest rates and access to housing. Access to certain layers will be more complicated. It is a difficult decision to buy because of the moment, type of house or price, and also because of financing, but we have historical data that is very revealing (...). It will depend on the type of family and earnings, but I do not think that for people who have made a decision, the interest rate is a brake on the transaction, "he added.